Monday, September 19, 2011

What The Hell Is Going On Here?

After the Week 1 barrage of 300 yard passing performances, I was sure it wouldn't be duplicated in Week 2. And it hasn't, to an extent (down to 8 this week after 14 in Week 1, with the MNF game tonight). But look at this year vs. 2010:

2010 Week 1: 3
2011 Week 1: 14
2010 Week 2: 6
2011 Week 2: 8

What the hell is going on here? An increase of 13 in one year is insane. I expect the usual guys - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, etc - to throw for 300. 

But Henne, Orton, Grossman, and Jason Campbell? Cam Newton with over 400 yards both weeks? No rookie in NFL history has ever accomplished that. Not Manning, not anyone. 

The most alarming observation is that everyone flipped out after Week 1. Why is this happening? Are we in the Twilight Zone? And by Week 2, no one batted an eye. Andy Dalton, a rookie making his second career start for the lowly Bengals, threw for 332 and 2 touchdowns. Last year, his performance would have been front-page news. This year, no one even noticed. 

So, why IS this happening? Two theories:

1. Even though Roger Goddell tries his damnedest to force parity in the NFL, there isn't much. While their might be schedule and revenue parity, there is little when it comes to talent, coaching, and management. The Patriots are better than the Redskins because they make vastly better personnel decisions, and they're better coached. With the lockout and shortened training camps, teams had to scramble. Well-run teams can deal with adversity; poorly-run teams can't. That severely widens the gap in preparedness, which is why we're seeing blowouts left and right. A good team or quarterback can find even the smallest exploit and use it to their advantage. I'm sure this will correct itself when bad teams finally catch up to good teams and figure out how to properly game-plan. I'm guessing around Week 7 or 8. It's not like Tom Brady can throw for 450 a game the entire season...right?

2. Football strategy is always cyclical. In the 2000's, it was smash-mouth Steelers and Ravens-type football. If you didn't have a power running game and a stout D, you weren't winning a Super Bowl. And teams like Pitt and Baltimore used it to the tune of 3 Super Bowl titles. "Defenses win championships" is bullshit. Michael Jordan said it in 1991, and it was repeated by enough traditionalist sportswriters that it became Gospel. The last two Super Bowl winners showed us that an elite quarterback and average defense can win a championship. Neither the Saints nor the Packers had great running games. I guess other franchises took notice, because 6 quarterbacks were drafted in the first 36 picks of the 2011 draft. Many of those qbs were drafted WAY too high. Bad teams have realized the key to winning is getting a franchise quarterback. 

Maybe the aerial explosion continues, maybe it doesn't. I hope it does. I'd rather see 38-35 shootouts than 12-9 snoozefests

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Hello, offensive explosion! 517 yards and 4 touchdowns for Brady, and 8/160/2 for Welker. Not to mention 3 other receivers with over 80 yards. Brady spreads the ball around so effortlessly that I had no idea he already had over 400 when he hit Welker for the 99-yard td. The running game was adequate. Their pass defense is putrid. Any secondary that allows 416 yards to Chad Fucking Henne needs a ton of work. The teams were pretty even stat-wise, other than New England having about 125 more passing yards. The biggest difference was 3rd down efficiency; 8-13 for NE, 2-14 for Miami. Much more entertaining game than I expected. 

The Broncos just threw themselves into the SuckForLuck sweepstakes. They definitely have the Suck. The offense is total shit. The only weapon they have is Brandon Lloyd, whose effectiveness is nullified because Orton can't get the ball to him. Other than a 90 yard Eric Decker punt return, the Broncos did nothing at all on offense. They couldn't stop the run, and they didn't need to stop the pass because Oakland's aerial attack is nonexistent. What a shitty team

The only bright spots for the Raiders were McFadden and the pass rush. And Janikowski, who kicked a 63 yard field goal then celebrated by getting tanked on Stoli. Though he probably would have gotten drunk regardless of whether or not he made the kick. Damn Polacks. 

Oh, and Jaws said "Shit" on the air, then apologized to the 0% of NFL fans who were offended by hearing a potty-mouth word. 

My Pats-Dolphins prediction was pretty close. I bombed the Raiders-Broncos pick. In my defense, I know nothing about either team

Monday, September 12, 2011

NFL Week 1

Chill out, Steelers fans. The world isn't coming to an end just because you got blown out by the Ravens. Pitt played its worst game of the season, while Baltimore played its best. Luckily, it came in week one, and not week 16. Joe Flacco also shaved his terrifying zombieunibrow. 

Anyone who doesn't hate the Dream Team already will fucking DESPISE them by the end of October. The Eagles are arrogant; they play dirty; they're still running their Madden offense. Michael Vick will manage to screw it up eventually, if he doesn't get himself decapitated. LEARN TO SLIDE, MORON. This team should be entertaining, to say the least. 

Buffalo put up 41, which is what I expected them to score all season. They demolished a playoff team, which is pretty impressive. MENSA member Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 4 touchdowns. Maybe the Bills will surprise some people this year. Who am I kidding, they're the Bills! They'll find a way to ruin any momentum they have. 

The Bengals won, but they beat the Browns, which doesn't really count for anything. Always fun to get Bungles' fans hope up though. 

The Falcons kicked off their Super Bowl run by getting blown the fuck out by the Bears. Jay Cutler looked good. I hate when that happens. I'm sure he'll say something stupid and restore his image as a dipshit soon

Cam Newton. Cam Newton! He looked impressive. The Panthers did a wonderful job catering their gameplan to his strengths. From laughingstock to record-breaker in 3 hours. He's on pace to throw for 6752 yards while his team finishes 0-16. Neither will happen...well, maybe the latter. Strong debut, especially since both Newton and the Panthers looked like a fucking mess in the preseason. 

The Redskins might be on to something. Then again, they played the Giants. NY will be lucky to finish 8-8. Eli Manning looked like...well, Eli Manning. Grossman looked good. Might be the last time I get to say that about ole Rex this season. Dan Snyder is still employing his Cash-for-Clunkers approach to signing players and coaches who became irrelevant three years ago

The Vikings are horrid. McNabb threw for 39 yards. He played the entire game. Just put in Ponder, let him get some experience, and mail it in. It's not like Minnesota is gonna make any noise this season as it is. The Packers and Bears look strong. The Lions look like they they can contend, or at least submarine the playoff hopes of a team in Week 17. 

Speaking of Detroit...nice win over everyones' chic playoff contender, the Bucs. Stafford looked great, and MEGATRON! Holy shit, Calvin Johnson is a hoss. Stafford is made of papier mâché. Expect a ruptured cruciate ligament at some point. 

The Chargers are still coached by Norval. They'll lead the league in every offensive category and still finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. That's Norv Turner Football, ladies and gents. At least San Diego is useful for fantasy purposes

The Texans destroyed the Colts. Fetushead or no Fetushead, Houston still hung 34 in one half. They're getting better and making it more difficult to finish 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7. But fear not. No coach is better at taking talent and turning it into medicrity than Gary Kubiak. How the fuck does he still hold a job?

The Seahawks are horrid. San Fran proved to be slightly less horrid. Both teams are legit SuckForLuck contenders. Although if Seattle ends up with the #1 pick, they'll probably take Matt Barkley. Pete Carroll has a hard-on for USC guys, combined with a propensity for being an idiot

And to save the best for last, Comedy Troupe Cowboys didn't disappoint! Their gameplan is:
Step 1 – Come out of the games like a house on fire, raise fans’ hopes
Step 2 – Start stalling on drives, settle for field goals 
Step 3 – Jets comeback 
Step 4 – Crushing turnover
Step 5 – ???
Step 6 – Lose
They followed the plan to a T. Step 5 can be a host of inept and comedic things, such as a fumble, a pick, a botched snap, a drive-killing penalty, a failed lateral....or in this case, all of them. When it comes to shitting the bed late in a close game, the Cowboys are masters of their domain. I'm starting to feel sorry for them. They have no discipline and they're poorly coached. Super Bowl contenders don't make those kind of boneheaded mistakes. The Jets and Nacho Sanchez were nearly as inept. 

Did I miss your team? They're probably irrelevant. Or I didn't watch the game. 

Monday's Picks:
Patriots 37, Dolphins 16
Broncos 20, Raiders 7. Who cares though. I'd rather watch a 24-hour Jersey Shore marathon than be subjected to Denver-Oakland